Climate Model

TODO.

where

α_BIOMASS(s) = Growth correction factor for species s according to model BIOMASS, and
LAI(s) = Leaf area index for species s (m² leaf area / m² forest floor area)

Since leaf area is not calculated in Heureka, foliage biomass is used instead, and multiplied with a conversion factor (SLA) to get LAI.

where
fbm(s) = Foliage biomass (kg dry matter / m² forest floor area), and
SLA(s) = Conversion factor for biomass foliage to leaf area for species s (m² projected one-side leaf area / kg dry matter),
prop(s) = Species proportion of species s in the stand, used as indicator for how much of the forest floor area is occupied by species s. The division with the species distribution is done because the divisor (forest floor area) should only include the forest floor occupied by the subject trees.

Function ResponseModifier (β)

where

β(s) = Response modifier for species s, and
c₀(s) = Intercept for species s (see control table), and
VIX_min = Minimum vegetation index for species s, and
VIX_max = Maximum vegetation index for species s.

The modified response for each species s is:

Vegetation index and site index

The vegetation index is a mapping of the categorial variable vegetation type code, to a nominal variable. The vegetation index is used as one of the explanatory in the Whole-stand growth model (see page 39 in the [http://heurekaslu.org/mw/images/9/93/Heureka_prognossystem_(Elfving_rapportutkast).pdf "Growth modelling in Heureka" document).

The climate model modifies the vegetation index. The vegetation index increases when the climate model predicts increased growth. The vegetation index is updated in each projection period.

Input data

With the installation of Heureka, there are three climate model scenarios available:

MPI 4.5: Based on Max Planck Institute MPI-ESM model using radiation scenario RCP 4.5, which assumes that radiative forcing stabilises at 4.5 W/m² before the year 2100. See also RCP4.5 at SMHI's homepage.

MPI 8.5: Based on Max Planck Institute MPI-ESM model using radiation scenario RCP 4.5, which assumes that radiative forcing stabilises at 8.5 W/m² before the year 2100.. See also RCP8.5 at SMHI's homepage

ECHAMS_A1B: Based on Max Planck Institute climate model ECHAM using emission scenario SRES A1B.

See also

About SMHI climate scenarios

Climate scenarios used in Heureka in the SKA 15 project

Import climate scenario in Heureka Helpdoc.

Model settings that a user can modify

Model parameters

Several model parameters can be modified via the Climate Model control table.

References

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