Difference between revisions of "Import of climate scenario"

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'''The ''k''NN-Sweden data''' consist of pixelwise estimates of forest states. A complete coverage is possible by using remotely sensed information, usually satellite image data. Sensors onboard, e.g., a SPOT satellite obtain spectral signatures in different wavelength bands (usually IR, R, G, and B) in each pixel, with a ground resolution approx. corresponding to 25 by 25 meters. Geo-referenced, previously inventoried NFI-plots will serve as reference data. In a feature space, defined by the satellite image, the ''k'' Nearest Neighbours (usually with ''k'' = 10) are found among the reference plots. Estimations of volume, age, tree species composition, etc. are then derived as weighted mean values (e.g. weighted inversely proportional to the distance in the feature space).
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Expert models of future climate scenarios can be applied, and such data imported as a formatted text file (in .csv or .txt format). Climate changes; usually including higher temperatures and increasing precipitation, are then simulated within the current analysis area and, if the area is large, varying depending on the location (latitude and altitude). The impact upon the forests is, for the moment, limited to an increasing growth - decreasing length of rotation. However, there will also be negative consequences of climate changes; forests are assumed to be more easily damaged by fungi, insects, etc. Applying such "risk models" in Heureka demands further development.
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However, such mean values are not sufficient for the long-term prognoses and the advanced forest management simulations to be analysed by the system. Single tree-data is here needed, preferably as a sample of plots with trees (or seedlings or saplings). Instead of using the pixelwise mean values, the nearest neighbour is imputed, the actual inventory could have been performed years ago (hence, an outlier-reduction of the reference database is first done, excluding plots with assumed major changes in forest state). A suitable reference database is firstly defined by the same region- and county-code as the analysis area, possibly also a range in altitude (e.g. 100 - 300 meters a.s.l.). Moreover, instead of imputing a plot to each pixel of the current stand, the imputation could be performed in a sample of corresponding pixels (randomly or systematically sampled). A sample of, e.g., 10 pixels will imply the imputation of 10 plots per stand.
 
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By ''k''NN imputation the forest state of a stand is described by sample plots, seemingly field inventoried in the current stand. Some things give the hoax away though; the within-stand variation regarding volume, age, etc. might be either unrealistically low (if the imputation is done "with replacement", i.e. one reference plot can represent a stand more than once) or unrealistically high (e.g., Maturity class K1 and S1 should not occur in the same stand, such stand should in real life be split into two stands).
 

Revision as of 17:10, 10 November 2009

Expert models of future climate scenarios can be applied, and such data imported as a formatted text file (in .csv or .txt format). Climate changes; usually including higher temperatures and increasing precipitation, are then simulated within the current analysis area and, if the area is large, varying depending on the location (latitude and altitude). The impact upon the forests is, for the moment, limited to an increasing growth - decreasing length of rotation. However, there will also be negative consequences of climate changes; forests are assumed to be more easily damaged by fungi, insects, etc. Applying such "risk models" in Heureka demands further development.

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